Saturday, March 21, 2009

03/20/09 Forex Market Comments

According to The Taylor Trading Technique
, today was a buying day for yen. After cleared pivot point (94.87), yen met some sell pressure at a confluence resistance zone - 95.65 (swing low), 95.60 (38.2% fib), 95.62 (50sma on hourly chart). Then yen achieved its average daily range at 95.98 (yen's 10 day average daily range is 184pips). Statistically, the probability of yen reaching average daily range is 46%. So more than half of the time yen won't go to the full stretch of its average daily range. Recalled what happened two days ago, yen's daily range was ADR plus 3.1std, that's a 3% probability for yen.

At the beginning of London session, pound formed a quick double top. There was a strong support at 1.44. Likewise, after a double top pattern, euro found its support at yesterday's high.

On hourly point and figure charts, pound met a double top resistance at 1.4566. A clear resistance line formed. Then a double bottom pattern at 1.44 offered support. We will watch this level closely.


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