Forex Strategies for the Decline Phase 05/07/09

In the last post I used British pound as an example to discuss the forex strategies for the advance phase. Yesterday (05/07/2009), pound made another textbook example for the fourth phase in a full price cycle - the decline.

In the decline phase, the market is in a downtrend, usually a short selling day in The Taylor Trading Technique, in which the price action tends to make lower lows and lower highs.

On hourly chart, a bearish engulfing pattern indicated resistance at 1.5160, and the shooting star confirmed the resistance. A 40-pip top range was built from 1.5147 to 1.5106, which is a counterpart of base building phase. Likewise, there are multiple false breakout and breakdown signals to fool reckless bulls and bears.

Pound formed a double top pattern around 1.5160, while MACD made a lower low, the bearish divergence is marked on both 15-min and hourly charts, which confirmed the trend reversal. After the shooting star, there is a quick drop caused by the 7:00 event - Bank of England's Official Bank Rate. There is no way to trade the event, which is almost 100-pip drop in just 1 minute. There is no need to chase the event either. After the event settling down, pound offered multiple great short opportunities for shrewd trader. There are three opportunities to short rally top, and at least two to add position at breakdown horizontal support level.

To summarize the forex strategies for the decline phase,

1. only short position is considered during the decline phase

2. entry A: short at rally top

3. entry B: short at breakdown horizontal support level

Just for argument's sake, the definition of phases is only for forex day trading purpose, which might be only identified on hourly or 15-min charts.

04/14/2009 Forex Market Comments

After good Friday's narrow range bar (NR20), yen chose to heading south. On the point and figure charts, yen made a bearish triple bottom breakdown at 99.50. The nearest downward target could be the 61.8% fib retracement level 98.03. The former swing low, also the 38.2% fib ret level 99.31 becomes resistance.



Yesterday British pound made a triple top breakout at 1.4766, a very bullish sign and beautiful up trending day for pound. The up thrust is not ready to challenge the former swing high 1.4956 yet. Pound formed a double top pattern.



Euro cooled off today, and remained below pivot point 1.3294 and 10-day ema 1.3300. There is no signal from point and figure charts. It's still an opportunity - an opportunity no to trade as stated in one of my day trading rules.

Japanese Yen Broke out 100 Key Level

Finally, Japanese yen broke out 100. Weak hands were shaken out by the temporary plunge initiated at the NFP, which stopped just 2pips shy to make a 3-box reversal on hourly point and figure charts. Japanese yen managed to crawl back and remain above 100 during the rest of day. On daily PnF, yen just made a double top breakout at 99. Surprisingly, Yen formed a narrow range bar (NR7) on the key 100 level breakout.




British pound made a double top breakout at the former double top resistance level 1.4766 on hourly PnF. On daily PnF, it's a double top breakout at 1.47. The key resistance level is 1.49 (former swing high 1.4978/1.4982). British pound made a new high in 20 trading days (H20).




Euro made a bear trap at the NFP event, then closed right above the pre-event level.

High Probability Forex Day Trading: Narrow Range Breakout

As a forex trader, the key of successful currency trading is to have a set of high probability low risk forex trading strategies. Trend following of a narrow range breakout is a reliable and frequent trading strategy in forex market.

Cable made a pin bar on 03/30/09, followed by a narrow range bar (NR20) on 03/31/09. The breakout of narrow range happened on 04/01/09. Yesterday was a nice follow through of this breakout, which recovered most of the down swing. On hourly point and figure chart, cable made a double top breakout at 1.4633 confluenced with a resistance trend line breakout.



Euro formed a narrow range bar (NR7) on 04/01/09 with a series of higher lows, which indicated the interest of support. The breakout happened two hours before the start of US session. The up swing took euro standing above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On hourly point and figure chart, with an obvious support trend line formed at the bottom, euro made a double top breakout at 1.3333.



On hourly point and figure chart, yen made a double top breakout at 99.25. The up thrust took former swing high of 99.66, then met resistance, and remained below 100 key level during the whole US session with a raised bottom indicating support. In Asia session, yen touched 100 but without following through momentum.

03/31/09 Forex Market Comments

Both cable and euro showed reduced volatility today. Their rallies stopped at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. For cable, there was a pin bar on hourly chart at the rally top. Cable formed a NR20 (the narrowest range in 20 trading days). Watch out for tomorrow might be a trending day.



On hourly point and figure chart, yen made a double top breakout at 98.25 confluenced with the breakout of resistance line. The up thrust stopped at 99.25. Looks like yen need more time before made a decision how to attack the key 100 level.

Day Trading Rules - Trade What You See Not What You Think

Thursday for euro was a NR7/ID (narrow range 7 & insider day). Since euro already stayed in a top range for 5 days, such kind of volatility dried up would indicate a high probability trending day on Friday. For a NR7/ID, there is no need to predict which direction market will breakout, cause either direction is possible. We just need to follow what the market is leading us.

The first short signal was given at breakdown Thursday's low. On hourly point and figure chart, it's a double bottom breakdown at 1.3500 confluence with the break of support trend line. The second short signal was given at breakdown the bottom of the top range, on hourly point and figure chart, this was a breakdown at major support at 1.3433.


1st downward target: 3356 (average daily range)
2nd downward target: 3265 (average daily range + 1std)
3rd downward target: 3174 (average daily range + 2std)

The major downward movement happened in London session. In US session, euro found support at its daily 2nd downward target. By the way, Friday formed a WS7. This was a classical NR7 setup. Detail information about NR7 setup can be found in Linda Raschke's Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies or Toby Crabel's book.


Cable made a similar breakdown at the bottom of its top range. Before the breakdown, cable already made a series of lower highs and lower lows, on point and figure chart, cable formed a downward channel, the short signal was given at the double bottom breakdown at 1.4533, confirmed by the breakdown from the channel at 1.4433, then followed by the breakdown from the support at 1.4400.



Yen met the same resistance from 99. Last week on hourly point and figure chart, there was a triple top false breakout. This time we got a double top false breakout. History does repeat itself.

Apply Point and Figure Charts for Forex Day Trading

On hourly point and figure charts, yen made a double top pattern at 98.50, which is at the same level of the triple top before last week's slide. Then the double top breakout met the same resistance from 99. It would be interesting to watch whether this up thrust will challenge the key 100 level.

Euro met a double top resistance at 3633 in early US session. The slide ended with a higher low, which indicates buying interest.


On pound's candlestick chart, it's clear the lower highers indicate selling pressure.

On hourly point and figure chart, pound formed a downward channel. After met the overhead resistance from the top of channel, pound broke down from the pivot point (4598). The slide stopped right at the bottom of channel, which is also the 38.2% fib retracement level. The key support level 4392 is still intact.

After five days of top building, euro's daily range contract and today is a NR7/ID, we might have a trending day by the last trading day in March. Yen formed a NR7.

Inside Day for Three Major Currency Pairs

Friday was inside day (ID) for three major currency pairs. Since there was no reduced volatility, we should be on alert about false breakout.

At the beginning of London session, euro made a triple top on candlestick chart, just 2pips shy of Friday's swing high. Noticed the divergence given by the MACD, even if euro did breakout, we wouldn't take a long position. There was a strong support zone just above 1.3500 (swing high 3533, Friday's low 3516, and 23.6fib 3524.) 3500 is today's downward average daily range. Since the uptrend was already established, the probability for euro to reverse is slim. The downward movement took Friday's low by 32pips, then crawled back. That's a classical stop hunt. Now euro formed a perfect top range from 3736 to 3516.


Unlike euro, pound did breakout, but all three attempts failed, and formed a triple top.



Yen was staying in an upward channel, made a series of higher highs and higher lows. It retraced more than 61.8% of last week's slide. On hourly point and figure chart, yen made a double top breakout. Yen reached its upward average daily range 97.30.

03/20/09 Forex Market Comments

According to The Taylor Trading Technique
, today was a buying day for yen. After cleared pivot point (94.87), yen met some sell pressure at a confluence resistance zone - 95.65 (swing low), 95.60 (38.2% fib), 95.62 (50sma on hourly chart). Then yen achieved its average daily range at 95.98 (yen's 10 day average daily range is 184pips). Statistically, the probability of yen reaching average daily range is 46%. So more than half of the time yen won't go to the full stretch of its average daily range. Recalled what happened two days ago, yen's daily range was ADR plus 3.1std, that's a 3% probability for yen.

At the beginning of London session, pound formed a quick double top. There was a strong support at 1.44. Likewise, after a double top pattern, euro found its support at yesterday's high.

On hourly point and figure charts, pound met a double top resistance at 1.4566. A clear resistance line formed. Then a double bottom pattern at 1.44 offered support. We will watch this level closely.

Point and Figure Charts Compounded with Narrow Range Bars (NRBs)

As mentioned in Toby Crabel's book, Day Trading with Short-Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout, range contraction days usually are followed by a trend day. The commonly used range contraction days are NR4/ID, and NR7.

Yesterday, we had extremely low volatility on all three markets. Yen, after a NR7/ID on 3/16/09, formed a NR20. That was the narrowest range in a whole month (20 trading days). Euro had a NR20 two days ago (3/13/09). And yesterday's daily range was just 7pips more than the bar of 3/13/09, it's alright to deem it as another NR20. Pound was a NR20/ID.

So we had the most promising contraction pattern yesterday. Today would be reasonable to anticipate a trend day.



Euro took off at 8:00am and surpassed both highs of last two days. So that was a legit NR20/ID breakout setup. On hourly point and figure chart, euro broke out from a double top pattern at level of 3066, which worked as resistance in January three times.



Yen broke down at 8:00am. At 10:00am the downside move took the low of yesterday and formed a double bottom pattern at 97.75 on hourly point and figure chart.



Pound formed a downward channel on hourly chart, and took the low of NR20/ID in London session. That's a double bottom breakout at 3066 on point and figure chart. At 8:00am, pound jumped back and sit just above the low of NR20/ID.

The ultimate move was triggered by the 2:15pm event - Federal Funds Rate. Yen's breakdown stop right at the former swing low 95.65, with a daily range of 317pips, which was a WS7 day with 3.1 std over the average daily range (ADR). Pound jumped from the bottom of the NR20 and surpassed its top, which indicated the breakdown in London session was a bear trap. Pound ended with a 454pips daily range, and a WS7 with 2.5 std over ADR. Euro's daily range was the highest - a whopping 511pips, which was 5.0 std over ADR.

All these breakdowns and breakouts are clearly illustrated by point and figure charts. That's the beauty of simplicity.