May 8, 2009 Forex Market Recap

Friday was a beautiful uptrending day for both euro and cable, another good example to apply forex strategies for the advance phase.

After the breakout of the ascending triangle, euro formed a shooting star followed by a hammer on hourly chart, a typical price action to shake out weak hands. Euro offered two great opportunities to long at the breakout of resistance level. The second had a higher probability since the uptrend is confirmed.




Cable formed a top range (1.5160-1.4980) on hourly chart. The strategies to trade a range-bound market is quite different from a trending market. Confirmation is needed for a legit breakout or breakdown. For a true breakout, the price should close above the resistance after the breakout, while a true breakdown, the price should remain below the support after the breakdown.




On daily point and figure charts, euro made a double top breakout at 1.35, which cable made a double top breakout at 1.50. Both euro and cable made a new high in twenties trading days (H20).

Yen met major resistance at 99.50 on both point and figure charts and candlesticks.

Forex Strategies for the Advance Phase 04/23/09

In the last post I used British pound as an example to discuss the forex strategies for base building phase. On April, 23, pound made another textbook example for the second phase in a full price cycle - the advance.

In the advance phase, the market is in an uptrend, usually a buying day in The Taylor Trading Technique, in which the price action tends to make higher lows and higher highs. The five waves (wave 1 ~ 5) of elliott wave theory give a good description for an uptrend. Wave 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive waves, which is the main trend, while wave 2, and 4 are corrective waves, which is against the trend.

The 5-wave structure is labeled on hourly chart. The most tricky part is to identify wave 2 and 4, since both waves formed a downward channel. A normal trading strategy for the advance phase is to long dip bottom. If a long entry was made at the first dip bottom, it will be challenged during the formation of wave 2 and 4. If the stop is tight, long positions can be easily stopped out.

Best entry to follow the up momentum is to long at the breakout of the top of channel or add position at breakout of the horizontal resistance level. After the breakout, wave 5 surpassed former swing high and reached 50% Fibonacci retracement.

To summarize the forex strategies for the advance phase,

1. only long position is considered during the advance phase

2. entry A: long at end of wave 2

3. entry B: long at end of wave 4