May 8, 2009 Forex Market Recap

Friday was a beautiful uptrending day for both euro and cable, another good example to apply forex strategies for the advance phase.

After the breakout of the ascending triangle, euro formed a shooting star followed by a hammer on hourly chart, a typical price action to shake out weak hands. Euro offered two great opportunities to long at the breakout of resistance level. The second had a higher probability since the uptrend is confirmed.




Cable formed a top range (1.5160-1.4980) on hourly chart. The strategies to trade a range-bound market is quite different from a trending market. Confirmation is needed for a legit breakout or breakdown. For a true breakout, the price should close above the resistance after the breakout, while a true breakdown, the price should remain below the support after the breakdown.




On daily point and figure charts, euro made a double top breakout at 1.35, which cable made a double top breakout at 1.50. Both euro and cable made a new high in twenties trading days (H20).

Yen met major resistance at 99.50 on both point and figure charts and candlesticks.

Day Trading Rules - Trade What You See Not What You Think

Thursday for euro was a NR7/ID (narrow range 7 & insider day). Since euro already stayed in a top range for 5 days, such kind of volatility dried up would indicate a high probability trending day on Friday. For a NR7/ID, there is no need to predict which direction market will breakout, cause either direction is possible. We just need to follow what the market is leading us.

The first short signal was given at breakdown Thursday's low. On hourly point and figure chart, it's a double bottom breakdown at 1.3500 confluence with the break of support trend line. The second short signal was given at breakdown the bottom of the top range, on hourly point and figure chart, this was a breakdown at major support at 1.3433.


1st downward target: 3356 (average daily range)
2nd downward target: 3265 (average daily range + 1std)
3rd downward target: 3174 (average daily range + 2std)

The major downward movement happened in London session. In US session, euro found support at its daily 2nd downward target. By the way, Friday formed a WS7. This was a classical NR7 setup. Detail information about NR7 setup can be found in Linda Raschke's Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies or Toby Crabel's book.


Cable made a similar breakdown at the bottom of its top range. Before the breakdown, cable already made a series of lower highs and lower lows, on point and figure chart, cable formed a downward channel, the short signal was given at the double bottom breakdown at 1.4533, confirmed by the breakdown from the channel at 1.4433, then followed by the breakdown from the support at 1.4400.



Yen met the same resistance from 99. Last week on hourly point and figure chart, there was a triple top false breakout. This time we got a double top false breakout. History does repeat itself.

Inside Day for Three Major Currency Pairs

Friday was inside day (ID) for three major currency pairs. Since there was no reduced volatility, we should be on alert about false breakout.

At the beginning of London session, euro made a triple top on candlestick chart, just 2pips shy of Friday's swing high. Noticed the divergence given by the MACD, even if euro did breakout, we wouldn't take a long position. There was a strong support zone just above 1.3500 (swing high 3533, Friday's low 3516, and 23.6fib 3524.) 3500 is today's downward average daily range. Since the uptrend was already established, the probability for euro to reverse is slim. The downward movement took Friday's low by 32pips, then crawled back. That's a classical stop hunt. Now euro formed a perfect top range from 3736 to 3516.


Unlike euro, pound did breakout, but all three attempts failed, and formed a triple top.



Yen was staying in an upward channel, made a series of higher highs and higher lows. It retraced more than 61.8% of last week's slide. On hourly point and figure chart, yen made a double top breakout. Yen reached its upward average daily range 97.30.