04/01/09 Cable Made a Tricky Narrow Range Breakout

The narrow range breakout for cable happened at 4:am during London session. At the beginning of US session, cable made a 100-pip quick slide, shaken out most weak hands, and rallied up the rest of the day. Remember 03/31/09 was a NR20 (narrow range 20 day). Once cable crawled back above 1.4372, the daily directional bias should still be upside. Now it's already Thursday morning 6:50am, the real jump happened at 1:00am and followed through during London session. It's a up trending day for cable.


It was a NR7 for both euro and yen.

03/10/09 Forex Market Comments

EUR/USD: Monday euro formed a NR4/ID (narrow range 4 and inside day). If euro could either breakout or breakdown, we would have a nice swing setup.

There are two breakout signals. The 4:00am breakout is fake. The real breakout happened at 8:00am. In 30 minutes, euro reached its daily high with 1sd over its average daily range (The first green line is average daily range, the second green line is average daily range plus 1sd.) Then euro gradually slide back. Around 1:30pm, euro breakdown yesterday high (YDH) and the trend line, which nulls the breakout. After a brief test of YDH, euro crashed 100pips in 30 mintues and found support around pivot point (white line). The downside movements also reached its average daily range.